According to industry forecasters, the set — which was released on March 30 via XO/Republic Records — may earn around 150,000 equivalent album units in the week ending April 5.
The Billboard 200 chart ranks the most popular albums of the week based on multi-metric consumption, which includes traditional album sales, track equivalent albums (TEA) and streaming equivalent albums (SEA). The top 10 of the new April 14-dated Billboard 200 chart (where The Weeknd will likely debut at No. 1) is scheduled to be revealed on Billboard’s websites on Sunday, April 8.
If My Dear Melancholy arrives at No. 1, it will give The Weeknd his third consecutive chart topper. It would follow his previous leaders, 2016’s Starboy and 2015’s Beauty Behind the Madness. Starboy bowed with 348,000 units in its first week, according to Nielsen Music (of which 209,000 were in traditional album sales), while Beauty Behind the Madness launched with 412,000 units (326,000 in album sales). Both titles were available in their first weeks on streaming services, and at retail as a digital album and CD.
My Dear Melancholy is currently only available via streamers and as a digital album. A CD version of the set is expected in the coming weeks.
Also on course for top 10 debuts next week: Rich the Kid’s The World Is Yours and Kacey Musgraves’ Golden Hour. The former may bow with perhaps 50,000 units, while the latter could enter with 40,000 units.