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Will Rihanna Dethrone Justin Bieber Atop the Hot 100?

Rihanna could "Work" her way to No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 by Monday.

Rihanna could “Work” her way to No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 by Monday (which would make for a nice present, just after her birthday Saturday).

Justin Bieber‘s “Love Yourself” has led the list for two nonconsecutive weeks, interrupted a week ago by Zayn‘s No. 1-debuting “Pillowtalk,” while Rihanna’s “Work,” featuring Drake, rises 7-4 this week (on the chart dated Feb. 27).

However, based on projected sales, according to sources, and streaming and airplay data, collected by Nielsen Music so far in the tracking period, for next week’s Hot 100 (dated March 5), “Work” and “Love Yourself” are essentially tied in projected downloads sold, with approximately 100,000 each, according to sources’ forecasts, with “Work” looking slightly ahead of “Love Yourself.” “Work” is noticeably ahead in streams, but “Love Yourself” is leading significantly in radio airplay. The preliminary figures suggest a tight race for the Hot 100’s summit (with the chart encompassing those three data metrics).

Rihanna Twerks on Drake in ‘Work’ Video Teaser: Watch


(Notably, the official video for “Work” is expected Monday, which is after the tracking week for the March 5 charts has ended; thus, any gains caused by the clip’s arrival would be reflected on the following week’s tallies, dated March 12.)

Meanwhile, twenty one pilots‘ “Stressed Out,” at No. 2 on the Hot 100 this week, is currently trending below both “Work” and “Love Yourself” in overall potential chart points.

The winner, and the entire Hot 100’s top 10, will be revealed on Billboard.com Monday (Feb. 22).

If “Work” reaches the top spot, Rihanna and Drake would celebrate their second shared No. 1: “What’s My Name?,” also billed as Rihanna featuring Drake, topped the Nov. 20, 2010, Hot 100.