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How Often Is the No. 1 Hit on the Songs of the Summer Chart on July 4 the Winner by Labor Day?

BTS' "Butter" continues atop Billboard's Songs of the Summer chart. What does history say about its chances to wrap at No. 1 by Labor Day?

As of Billboard‘s latest, July 10-dated Songs of the Summer chart, BTS‘ “Butter” continues at No. 1. But does that mean that it’s a lock to emerge victorious by the end of the summer?

Each week, Billboard‘s 20-position Songs of the Summer running tally tracks the most popular titles based on cumulative performance on the weekly streaming-, airplay- and sales-based Billboard Hot 100 chart from Memorial Day through Labor Day (this year encompassing charts dated June 12 through Sept. 11). At the end of the season, the top song of the summer will be revealed.

On the latest list, “Butter” keeps at No. 1, followed by Olivia Rodrigo’s “Good 4 U” and Dua Lipa’s “Levitating,” featuring DaBaby, also steady at Nos. 2 and 3, respectively. Doja Cat’s “Kiss Me More,” featuring SZA, rises 5-4, swapping spots with Justin Bieber’s “Peaches,” featuring Daniel Caesar and Giveon (4-5).

With the latest Songs of the Summer chart marking the first of 2021 dated after July 4, how often does the No. 1 title on the survey to that point wind up winning the season’s competition?

Let’s look back at the last 10 years.

No. 1 by July 4 & Eventual No. 1 for the season:
2012, “Call Me Maybe,” Carly Rae Jepsen
2013, “Blurred Lines,” Robin Thicke feat. T.I. + Pharrell
2014, “Fancy,” Iggy Azalea feat. Charli XCX
2016, “One Dance,” Drake feat. WizKid & Kyla
2017, “Despacito,” Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee feat. Justin Bieber
2019, “Old Town Road,” Lil Nas X feat. Billy Ray Cyrus
2020, “Rockstar,” DaBaby feat. Roddy Ricch

No. 1 by July 4 but not eventual No. 1 for the season:
2011, “Rolling in the Deep,” Adele / Eventual No. 1: “Party Rock Anthem,” LMFAO feat. Lauren Bennett & GoonRock
2015, “See You Again,” Wiz Khalifa feat. Charlie Puth / Eventual No. 1: “Cheerleader,” OMI
2018, “Nice for What,” Drake / Eventual No. 1: “In My Feelings,” also by Drake

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So, seven of the last 10 No. 1s on the season-ending Songs of the Summer chart ranked atop the weekly survey as of July 4. Will BTS’ “Butter” continue to skew the stat toward the majority? Despite such a clear split, it’s hard to predict any individual year, as every weekly chart is always potentially just a frame away from welcoming a new smash, while housing surging hits already released, that could accumulate enough chart points to finish in the lead by Labor Day.

Keep checking Billboard.com for the latest on the Songs of the Summer chart, as well as the top 10 summer songs every year throughout the Hot 100’s history (dating to its start in 1958).