It looks like Miley Cyrus’ “Wrecking Ball” is about to smash its way to the top of the Billboard Hot 100.
Thanks to expected enormous streaming totals for the song’s video, early indications are that it should dethrone Katy Perry’s “Roar,” which leads the list for a second week this week.
If “Ball” blasts to the summit, Cyrus would collect her first Hot 100 No. 1. She’s reached No. 2 with 2009’s “Party in the U.S.A.” and her previous single, “We Can’t Stop.”
According to data provided by YouTube, “Ball” boasts 15.5 million U.S. YouTube views over its first two days since the clip premiered on Monday (Sept. 9). Projected over seven days, the streams for the song and video could total a whopping 30 to 45 million in the U.S., a figure that would count toward next week’s Hot 100.
If numbers develop as projected, “Roar” would register about half or less of that streaming sum.
This week, “Roar” claimed the Hot 100’s top Streaming Gainer award, rising 3-1 on the Streaming Songs chart with a 122% increase to 12 million U.S. streams, up 33%, according to Nielsen BDS. The song’s video premiered on Sept. 5.
“Ball” rose 27-21 on Streaming Songs this week with 2.2 million U.S. streams, a total tallied from user-generated videos featuring the song’s audio (prior to the release of the song’s official clip) and activity on certain audio services that contribute to the chart.
According to industry sources, “Ball” could sell more than 400,000 downloads for the tracking week ending Sunday (Sept. 15). It sold 116,000 in the Nielsen SoundScan week ending Sept. 8.
“Roar” is in line to sell 340,000-360,000. This week, it leads Digital Songs (for a fourth consecutive week) with 373,000, according to SoundScan.
While “Ball” looks to sport comfortable leads in streaming and sales, “Roar” will register significantly more radio action in the Sept. 11-17 BDS tracking week, data which forms the airplay component for the Hot 100; sales and streaming are the chart’s other two metrics.
Through two days of BDS building data, “Roar” shows 42 million in all-format audience, second only to Robin Thicke’s “Blurred Lines” (featuring T.I. and Pharrell), which stands at 54 million.
“Ball” ranks just outside the 100 most-played songs in that span, with 4.5 million. Notably, RCA Records just began promoting it to radio this week; Capitol has been working “Roar” to radio since mid-August.
NEXT WEEK’S HOT 100
What do all these numbers mean for next week’s Hot 100? Presently, it seems that Cyrus will score her first No. 1 on the ranking.
Combining the sales projections above and taking building BDS data for airplay and streaming and projecting chart points over a full week, “Ball” looks ready to swing its way to a fairly sizable lead over “Roar” and take over atop next week’s chart.
Check Billboard.com on Wednesday (Sept. 18) for all the songs’ official figures and to find out who claims the Hot 100’s coveted crown. The refreshed Hot 100 will appear in full on Billboard.com next Thursday (Sept. 19) and in next week’s issue of Billboard magazine.