Lil Baby is on course for his first No. 1 album on the Billboard 200 chart, as industry forecasters expect his new release, My Turn, to open atop next week’s tally. Those in the know suggest the album, which was released via Quality Control/Motown on Feb. 28, could launch with more than 170,000 equivalent album units earned in the U.S. in the week ending March 5. That sum would also mark the artist’s biggest week ever for an album, in terms of units earned.
The Billboard 200 chart ranks the most popular albums of the week based on multi-metric consumption, which includes traditional album sales, track equivalent albums (TEA) and streaming equivalent albums (SEA). The top 10 of the March 14-dated Billboard 200 chart (where My Turn could debut at No. 1) is scheduled to be revealed via Billboard’s website on Sunday, March 8.
My Turn is the follow-up to Lil Baby’s Street Gossip album, which debuted and peaked at No. 2 on the Dec. 15, 2018-dated chart with 88,000 equivalent album units earned in its first week, according to Nielsen Music/MRC Data.Lil Baby has so far clocked four charting albums, three of which reached the top 10: Street Gossip, Drip Harder (No. 4, with Gunna, in 2018) and Harder Than Ever (No. 3, 2018). Lil Baby’s best week, in terms of units, came via Drip Harder, which launched with 130,000.
My Turn’s first week will be driven almost entirely by streaming activity, with its album sales perhaps contributing only about 5,000 to 8,000 of its overall starting sum.
Heading for a historic debut on the Billboard 200 is Bad Bunny’s new YHLQMDLG. Forecasters suggest the album, which was released late in the evening on Feb. 28 via Rimas, could start at No. 2 and earn between 125,000 and 145,000 equivalent album units in the week ending March 5 — the biggest week for a Latin album since Billboard began tracking albums by equivalent album units in December of 2014.
Most of YHLQMDLG’s starting sum will be powered by streaming activity, with perhaps as much as 25,000 generated by album sales. Both Bad Bunny’s YHLQMDLG and Lil Baby’s My Turn are profiting from merchandise/album bundle offers sold through each artist’s respective official webstore.YHLQMDLG will likely land the biggest streaming week ever for a Latin album, surpassing the record set by Ozuna’s Aura, which bowed with 53.2 million on-demand audio streams (chart dated Sept. 8, 2018).
Elsewhere on next week’s Billboard 200 chart, watch for James Taylor to log his lucky 13th top 10 album with American Standard (around 75,000 units; mostly driven by a concert ticket/album sale redemption offer) while G. Herbo’s PTSD and Five Finger Death Punch’s F8 both have a chance at bowing in the top 10 (both with somewhere in the 45,000 range in total units).