The duet was released to digital service providers for streaming and purchase at midnight ET Friday, May 22, while its official video premiered that afternoon. The song is the second single from Gaga’s album Chromatica, which arrived today (May 29); first single “Stupid Love” debuted and peaked at No. 5 on the Hot 100 in March.
The Hot 100 blends all-genre U.S. streaming, radio airplay and digital sales data.
According to projections based on industry forecasts and building Nielsen Music/MRC Data figures, “Rain” could draw over 25 million U.S. streams and 8 million in radio airplay audience and sell over 50,000 in its first full tracking week.
The song is aiming to dethrone Megan Thee Stallion’s “Savage,” featuring Beyoncé, after the latter ascended to No. 1 on the May 30-dated Hot 100.
Notably, if “Rain” opens atop the Hot 100, it would mark the first instance of an all-female collaboration supplanting another. It would additionally become the third such No. 1 in four weeks, after “Savage” and Doja Cat’s “Say So,” featuring Nicki Minaj (May 16). In the Hot 100’s nearly 62-year history prior to “Say So,” just five songs exclusively by multiple solo women reigned.
Grande, meanwhile, would earn not only her fourth Hot 100 No. 1, but would become the first artist with four No. 1 debuts, as her first three leaders have all opened atop the tally: “Thank U, Next” (November 2018), “7 Rings” (February 2019) and “Stuck With U,” with Justin Bieber, two weeks ago (May 23). Grande, Bieber, Mariah Carey and Drake currently share the record with three No. 1 debuts each.
A No. 1 launch for “Rain” on the Hot 100 would earn Gaga her fifth leader and second chart-topping entrance, following “Born This Way” in February 2011. With such a start, she would claim the mark for the longest span of No. 1 debuts: nine years, three months and one week.
The top 10 of the June 6-dated Hot 100 is scheduled to be revealed Monday (June 1), with all charts updating on Billboard.com Tuesday (June 2).