The song arrived late on Jan. 19, along with fellow new track “Diplomatic Immunity,” which could launch in the top 20 or higher on the tally. (The songs are paired on Drake’s new “Scary Hours” two-track single.)
Let’s run some projections. Highlights of next week’s Hot 100, which blends streaming, airplay and sales data, according to Nielsen Music, will post on Billboard.com Monday (Jan. 29), with all charts posting the following day (Jan. 30).
Based on preliminary data projecting the tracking period feeding next week’s Hot 100, “God’s Plan” could draw over 55 million U.S. streams, easily enough to soar in at No. 1 on the Streaming Songs chart. It should also sell over 110,000 downloads and bow atop the Digital Song Sales chart. With radio promotion just beginning, the song is also likely to draw over 20 million in radio audience in the tracking week.
Meanwhile, “Diplomatic Immunity” should start with over 20 million first-week U.S. streams.
Drake is seeking his fourth Hot 100 No. 1 and second as a lead artist. He first led as featured on Rihanna‘s “What’s My Name?,” which topped the Nov. 20, 2010-dated chart , and then as featured on her “Work,” which began a nine-week reign on March 5, 2016. He followed with his own “One Dance,” featuring WizKid and Kyla, which ruled for 10 weeks beginning May 21, 2016.
“God’s Plan” would mark Drake’s first debut at No. 1 on the Hot 100 and the chart’s first since DJ Khaled‘s “I’m the One,” featuring Justin Bieber, Quavo, Chance the Rapper and Lil Wayne, which roared in on top last May 20.
With two debuts, Drake is additionally in line to up his count to 159 career Hot 100 entries, extending his mark for the most among soloists in the chart’s 59-year history.
Again, visit Billboard.com Monday (Jan. 29) to find out who’s No. 1 and for a rundown of the chart’s top 10.