Based on industry forecasts, the song could sell 80,000 downloads in its first week of tracking. It also could draw 40 million in radio audience and 10 million U.S. streams, based on Billboard projections according to preliminary Nielsen Music data. Those figures could add up to a top 10 launch for the song on the Hot 100, which blends sales, airplay and streaming data.
“Magic” was released Oct. 7 on digital and streaming services and is the title track from Mars’ third full-length, due Nov. 18. As previously reported, the song began at No. 2 on the Billboard + Twitter Top Tracks chart (dated Oct. 22).
Notably, the lead singles from Mars’ first two studio sets have both hit No. 1 on the Hot 100: “Just the Way You Are,” from Doo-Wops & Hooligans, led for four weeks in 2010, and “Locked Out of Heaven,” from Unorthodox Jukebox, reigned for six weeks in 2012-13. (The songs debuted at Nos. 43 and 34, respectively.)
“Magic” should challenge for Mars’ highest Hot 100 debut. Of his 18 hits so far (dating to his 2010 arrival; 12 of those songs have hit the top 10), he’s bowed as high as No. 10, as featured on Snoop Dogg and Wiz Khalifa’s “Young, Wild & Free” (Oct. 29, 2011). As a lead artist, he’s debuted at a No. 28 high with “It Will Rain” (Oct. 15, 2011), a mark he should easily surpass with “Magic.”
Mars last reached the Hot 100 as featured on Mark Ronson’s “Uptown Funk!,” which spent 14 weeks at No. 1 and went on to become the top song on the 2015 year-end Hot 100.
Check Billboard.com Monday (Oct. 17), when highlights of the new Hot 100’s top 10 will post. The entire chart, and all rankings, will update the following day.