Prognosticators suggest the pop star’s album could earn around 150,000 equivalent album units in the week ending Feb. 21. If the album holds at No. 1, it will be the first by a solo woman to more than one week at the top in over a year, since Taylor Swift’s Reputation tallied four nonconsecutive weeks at No. 1 (its first three: Dec. 2-Dec. 16, 2017, and then Jan. 6, 2018).
Thank U, Next debuted at No. 1 on the Feb. 23-dated Billboard 200, earning 360,000 units in its first week, according to Nielsen Music.
The Billboard 200 chart ranks the most popular albums of the week based on multi-metric consumption, which includes traditional album sales, track equivalent albums (TEA) and streaming equivalent albums (SEA). The top 10 of the March 2-dated Billboard 200 chart (where Thank U should hold at No. 1) is scheduled to be revealed on Billboard’s websites on Sunday, Feb. 24.
If Thank U, Next spends a second week at No. 1, it will also mark Grande’s first album to tally more than just a single week atop the list. Her three previous leaders all locked up one frame each at No. 1.
While Grande is aiming to retain the No. 1 slot on next week’s Billboard 200, Queen’s Bohemian Rhapsody soundtrack could notch a new peak on the list, as the album could rise 3-2 — surpassing its No. 3 high. The album could garner 60,000 units in the week ending Feb. 21 (up from 48,000) as the set continues to bask in the glow of the movie’s home video release on DVD and blu-ray on Feb. 12.
Next week’s highest debut will likely come from country duo Florida Georgia Line’s Can’t Say I Ain’t Country, which could bow at No. 3 with around 50,000 units. The act’s last album, Dig Your Roots, entered at No. 2 on the Sept. 17, 2016-dated chart with 145,000 units.
Plus, Drake is on track to notch his 10th consecutive top 10 album with his from-the-vaults release So Far Gone. The mixtape, which was originally released for free in early 2009, but never commercially issued or distributed to streaming services until Feb. 15, may debut at No. 4 with perhaps 45,000 units earned. So Far Gone made its commercial and streaming debut celebrate the 10th anniversary of the mixtape’s original release.
While the full So Far Gone never previously charted on Billboard’s album charts (back in 2009, an album needed to be commercially released in order to chart), a distillation of the set did reach Billboard tallies later that year. The So Far Gone EP was released later in 2009 as Drake’s first commercially released album (via Young Money/Cash Money/Republic Records). The EP combined five tracks from the previously released full-length mixtape (including his first Billboard Hot 100 hit, the No. 2-peaking “Best I Ever Had”), along with two new cuts. The So Far Gone EP debuted and peaked at No. 6 on the Billboard 200 dated Oct. 3, 2009. All eight of Drake’s subsequent releases, through Scorpion in 2018, have debuted at No. 1.