Grande is aiming for a top five launch with new single “No Tears Left to Cry,” while Cole looks likely to send multiple songs onto the chart, led by “ATM” possibly in the top 10, as his new album KOD is set to open at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 albums chart with 2018’s biggest debut.
Let’s look at the potential stats for both acts and how they might fare on next week’s Hot 100; the chart blends weekly streaming, airplay and sales data, according to Nielsen Music.
Based on preliminary totals projecting the tracking period feeding next week’s Hot 100, “Tears,” released April 20 (the first day of the streaming and sales tracking week), should arrive with over 25 million U.S. streams and over 85,000 downloads sold in the week ending April 19 (easily making it the top-selling song of the week). The song should also draw over 30 million in all-format radio airplay audience in the week ending April 22 (the last day of the airplay tracking week).
When those figures are crunched, “Tears” appears in contention for a top five Hot 100 start.
Meanwhile, Drake looks likely to score a third week atop the Hot 100 with incumbent No. 1 “Nice for What,” which should sport over 50 million U.S. streams, 25,000 sold and 45 million in airplay reach in the same measurement spans.
Also aiming for a top 10 Hot 100 start is Cole’s “ATM,” which should bow driven largely by over 30 million streams, while adding 8,000 sold and 2 million in airplay reach.
Cole could additionally earn top 40 Hot 100 debuts with KOD cuts “Kevin’s Heart,” “Photograph” and “Motiv8,” each fueled by streaming sums of over 20 million (with “Heart” likely to eclipse 25 million).
Grande is seeking her ninth Hot 100 top 10, and sixth to debut in the region. She last hit the top 10 with “Side to Side” (featuring Nicki Minaj), which rose to No. 4 in December 2016.
Cole could collect his second top 10; his first, “Deja Vu,” from his previous LP, 4 Your Eyez Only, debuted at No. 7, also in December 2016.
Highlights of next week’s Hot 100 will post on Billboard.com Monday (April 30), with all charts posting the following day (May 1).