The 57th annual Academy of Country Music Awards will be held Monday, March 7, at Las Vegas’s Allegiant Stadium, and streamed live via Amazon Prime Video. Heading into this year’s awards show, which will be hosted by Dolly Parton with help from Gabby Barrett and Jimmie Allen, a slate of nominees, including established hitmakers and rising stars, are hoping to take home some ACM hardware.
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Will leading nominee Chris Young, who has seven nominations this year, take home his first ACM Awards wins? Will Luke Combs earn his first ACM entertainer of the year win, and will Allen and Barrett move up the ranks to take home their first ACM male artist of the year and female artist of the year honors, respectively? Will Miranda Lambert add to her nine female artist of the year wins? And will Morgan Wallen pick up his first ACM award(s) since he was banned from awards shows last year due to uttering a racial slur?
Here are Billboard’s winners predictions (in select categories) from executive editor, West Coast and Nashville Melinda Newman, and staff writer, Nashville Jessica Nicholson.
Entertainer of the year
- Eric Church
- Luke Combs
- Miranda Lambert
- Chris Stapleton
- Carrie Underwood
Newman: Last year’s winner, Luke Bryan, was not nominated this go-round, and after an all-male slate in 2021, Lambert and previous three-time winner Underwood return to the lineup. As touring slowly begins to return to pre-pandemic levels, acts such as Church, Stapleton and Combs have mounted tours. In a category that contains nothing but worthy contenders, it feels like Combs, who won this award during November’s CMA Awards, has the wind at his back and will take it home for the first time.
Will win: Luke Combs
Nicholson: In 2021, Combs, Stapleton and Church were road warriors, with each playing a slate of arena shows. Of the three, Combs also dominated the country charts with multiple-week No. 1s and posted his first stadium shows. His momentum should give him the edge to win his first ACM entertainer trophy.
Will win: Luke Combs
Single of the year
- “Buy Dirt” – Jordan Davis featuring Luke Bryan; producer: Paul DiGiovanni; MCA Nashville
- “Famous Friends” – Chris Young and Kane Brown; producers: Corey Crowder, Chris Young; RCA Records Nashville
- “Fancy Like” – Walker Hayes; producers: Walker Hayes, Shane McAnally, Joe Thibodeau; Monument Records
- “If I Didn’t Love You” – Jason Aldean and Carrie Underwood; producers: Michael Knox; Broken Bow Records; Macon Music, LLC; BBR Music Group, BMG
- “You Should Probably Leave” – Chris Stapleton; producer: Dave Cobb, Chris Stapleton; Mercury Nashville
Newman: There are so many directions the voters can go here. Every song went to No. 1 on Billboard‘s Country Airplay chart, so they are all bonafide hits. Do voters want to reward the novelty and undeniable catchiness of Hayes’ “Fancy Like,” which zoomed to No. 1, or the more traditional artistry of Aldean and Underwood’s tortured love ballad, or “Buy Dirt’s” familiar, beloved country themes? Young and Brown’s “Famous Friends” is upbeat delight, while Stapleton’s “You Should Probably Leave” is another sultry entry from him. One of the tightest races of the year with no front-runner, but “If I Didn’t Love You” feels like it has a tiny edge.
Will win: “If I Didn’t Love You,” Jason Aldean and Carrie Underwood
Nicholson: Every song in this category made a strong connection with music fans over the past year. Still, Hayes’s “Fancy Like” was the runaway summer hit of 2021, with its inescapable groove and praise for Applebee’s bourbon street steaks and Oreo shakes. The song earned Hayes his first No. 1 on the Billboard Country Airplay chart and 24 weeks entrenched at the pinnacle of the Hot Country Songs chart, as well as reaching No. 3 on Billboard’s all-genre Hot 100.
Will win: Walker Hayes, “Fancy Like”
Female artist of the year
- Gabby Barrett
- Miranda Lambert
- Ashley McBryde
- Maren Morris
- Carly Pearce
Newman: Barrett soared into this category after snagging new female artist last year on the back of two consecutive No. 1 singles, but Pearce made a confessional album that brought her to a new artistic level and suffused her with a confidence that shows in every note she sings. Every woman had a great year, but Pearce deserves to take home the trophy.
Will win: Carly Pearce
Nicholson: Each of these contenders had stellar years, with Barrett notching a three-week No. 1 hit with “The Good Ones.” Morris had a crossover hit with “Chasing After You,” her duet with husband Ryan Hurd, while Carly Pearce released the most critically acclaimed project of her career with 29: Written in Stone and was inducted as a member of the Grand Ole Opry. McBryde teamed with Pearce for the gorgeous duet “Never Wanted to Be That Girl” and opened for Combs’ arena tour. Lambert was won this category nine previous times. Last year, she offered several top-notch collaborations that highlighted the yin and yang of her artistry with the electrifying Elle King duet “Drunk (and I Don’t Wanna Go Home),” as well as the acoustic-based The Marfa Tapes album with Jack Ingram and Jon Randall. Even so, Pearce took home this honor at the CMA Awards in November; look for her to repeat that here.
Will win: Carly Pearce
Male artist of the year
- Jimmie Allen
- Luke Combs
- Thomas Rhett
- Chris Stapleton
- Morgan Wallen
Newman: Like Barrett, Allen ascends into this category after winning new male artist last year, but he faces really stiff competition here.
Will win: Jimmie Allen
Nicholson: Combs launched one of the biggest tours of the year in 2021 and earned four No. 1s on Billboard’s Country Airplay chart (including his collab with Jameson Rodgers). Though Wallen’s double album was the best-selling all-genre project of 2021, his tumultuous year likely won’t earn him any voter favors in this category. Allen was 2021’s new male artist of the year winner. Since then, he’s also earned another No. 1 hit with his Brad Paisley duet “Freedom Was a Highway” and has become one of country music’s most visible media stars. Look for Allen to ascend from new male artist winner to a long overdue male artist of the year win.
Will win: Jimmie Allen
Album of the year
- 29: Written in Stone – Carly Pearce; producers: Shane McAnally, Josh Osborne, Jimmy Robbins, Tony Brown; Big Machine Records
- Country Again: Side A – Thomas Rhett, producers: Dann Huff, Jesse Frasure, Matt Dragstrem; Big Machine Label Group
- Dangerous: The Double Album – Morgan Wallen; producers: Joey Moi, Jacob Durrett, Charlie Handsome, Matt Dragstrem, Dave Cohen; Big Loud Records /Republic Records
- Famous Friends – Chris Young; producer: Mark Holman, Corey Crowder, Chris Young, Chris DeStefano; RCA Records Nashville
- The Marfa Tapes – Jack Ingram, Miranda Lambert, Jon Randall; producers: Jack Ingram, Miranda Lambert, Jon Randall; Vanner Records / RCA Records Nashville
Newman: Wallen’s album was the top album of the year across all genres, but he may have to be content with just being nominated, as the country community is still dealing with how to proceed with him after the video of Wallen using a racial slur emerged in February 2021. This is a race between Pearce’s 29: Written in Stone and Thomas Rhett’s Country Again, both of which were intensely personal projects. The nod goes to Pearce’s “divorce” album.
Will Win: 29: Written in Stone, Carly Pearce
Nicholson: Pearce released the most critically acclaimed album of her career with 29: Written in Stone. Wallen’s Dangerous: The Double Album became the top-selling album of any genre in 2021, despite the industry and media fallout after his use of a racial slur. Young and Rhett both issued fine albums, with the former’s including his hit title track duet with Kane Brown. Meanwhile, Lambert took a detour from the electric verve of her previous release Wildcard to craft a collaborative effort with Ingram and Randall, which showcased the raw vocal and songwriting talents of all three of its participants.
Will win: The Marfa Tapes, Miranda Lambert, Jon Randall, Jack Ingram
Duo of the year
- Brooks & Dunn
- Brothers Osborne
- Dan + Shay
- LOCASH
- Maddie & Tae
Newman: Dan + Shay have won the past three consecutive years and with a strong new album released last year, they can’t be counted out, nor should they be. However, it feels like it’s time for Brothers Osborne, who won for two years before Dan + Shay’s reign, to return to the winner’s circle. Musically, they continue to grow and their leadership role in the country community has only grown since TJ Osborne came out last year.
Will win: Brothers Osborne
Nicholson: Brothers Osborne have proved again over the past year that making an impact on audiences goes beyond hit records and sold-out tours. Since Brothers Osborne member TJ Osborne came out in 2021, the duo has become even bolder in their message of acceptance and inclusion in the country music genre, thanks to songs including “Younger Me” and “I’m Not For Everyone.” Meanwhile, Dan+Shay issued the album Good Things, spearheaded by the No. 1 hit “Glad You Exist.”
Will win: Brothers Osborne
Group of the year
- Lady A
- Little Big Town
- Midland
- Old Dominion
- The Cadillac Three
Newman: Old Dominion has won for the past four years and they released a fine new album, Time, Tequila & Therapy, this past October that makes them the instant front-runner. The potential spoiler is Lady A, whose new album What a Song Can Do proved a worthy follow-up to 2019’s excellent Ocean. If they do win, it would be a major comeback for an act that hasn’t taken home the trophy in this category in more than a decade. The other three contenders had fine years, but not ones that would put them at top of the leaderboard here.
Will win: Old Dominion
Nicholson: Old Dominion released the stellar album Time, Tequila and Therapy, including the top 10 Country Airplay hit “I Was on a Boat That Day.” Meanwhile, trio Midland delved into both their origin story (with the release of The Sonic Ranch) and a revelation of throwback ‘70s and ‘90s sounds with the EP The Last Resort. Though Lady A and The Cadillac Three also issued solid albums over the past two years, Old Dominion could very well extend their four-year winning streak.
Will Win: Old Dominion
Song of the year
- “7 Summers” – Morgan Wallen; songwriters: Morgan Wallen, Josh Osborne, Shane McAnally; publishers: Big Loud Mountain, Bo Wallace Publishing, Smackborne Music, Sony/ATV Accent, Smackstreet Music, Tempo Investments, Warner Geo Met Ric Music
- “Buy Dirt” – Jordan Davis featuring Luke Bryan; songwriters: Jordan Davis, Jacob Davis, Josh Jenkins, Matt Jenkins; publishers: Anthem Music Publishing II, Bentprop Pub, Big Blue Nation Music, Combustion Five, Jentown, Jordan Davis Music, Smackwork Music, Smack Blue, Kobalt Music Group Music, Universal Music Corporation, WC Music Corp
- “Fancy Like” – Walker Hayes; songwriters: Cameron Bartolini, Josh Jenkins, Shane Stevens, Walker Hayes; publishers: Songs of SMACK, Rarespark Media Group, Smackworks Music, Smack Blue, Kobalt Music Group, Holy Graffiti Music, Purplebeatz, WC Music Corp
- “Knowing You” – Kenny Chesney; songwriters: Adam James, Brett James, Kat Higgins; publishers: 3 Ring Circus, BMG Platinum Songs, Pompano Run Music, Songs of Brett, WC Music Corp
- “Things a Man Oughta Know” – Lainey Wilson; songwriters: Jason Nix, Jonathan Singleton, Lainey Wilson; publishers: Sony/ATV Accent, Sony/ATV Countryside, Spirit Two Nashville, Super Big Music
Newman: With no disrespect to any of the other nominees, this is a race between “Buy Dirt” and “Knowing You.” An award for the songwriters, song of the year tends to gravitate toward tunes with a message or that espouse a certain lifestyle. “Buy Dirt” contains an elder’s homespun wisdom praising traditional values, which is catnip to ACM Awards’ voters. “Knowing You” has that bittersweet, wistful aura of loss that stresses smiling through the tears. Both are worthy, but the nod goes to “Buy Dirt,” which will be a career song for Jordan Davis, who co-wrote and performs the song that features Luke Bryan.
Winner: “Buy Dirt,” Jordan Davis and Luke Bryan
Nicholson: “7 Summers” feels like one of the oldest contenders in the category at this point, while newcomer Wilson proved her abilities as a songwriter and an artist with the stellar “Things a Man Oughta Know.” “Knowing You” has a slow-simmering intensity and poetic song structure, while the Jordan Davis/Luke Bryan collab “Buy Dirt” plays on the kind of hard-earned, passed-down wisdom tales so many classic country hits are made of.
Will Win: “Knowing You,” Kenny Chesney