Kendrick Lamar's "Humble" is set to blast onto next week's Billboard Hot 100 (dated April 22) in the top five and perhaps pose a challenge to the chart's current No. 1, Ed Sheeran's "Shape of You," which has reigned for 10 weeks so far.
Following its first full week of activity, industry forecasters suggest that "Humble" could sell more than 125,000 downloads in the week ending April 6. When finalized streaming (likely in the range of 40-50 million U.S. streams in the tracking week ending April 6), propelled by the track's official video, and radio airplay (10-15 million in all-format audience in the week ending April 9) are added to the mix -- as the Hot 100 blends U.S. streaming, airplay and sales data -- the track should start in the top five on the April 22-dated tally.
"Humble" should arrive as the top-selling and most-streamed song of the week, while Sheeran's "Shape" should remain the week's most-heard song on radio. Per current data and projections, Sheeran's wide lead in airplay could offset Lamar's leads in sales and streams, keeping "Shape" at No. 1 on the Hot 100.
Highlights of next week's Hot 100 will post on Billboard.com on Monday (April 10), with all charts updating online Tuesday, as always.
With the expected lofty launch for "Humble" on the Hot 100, Lamar will land his first top 10 as a lead artist, following three top 10s in featured roles. A$AP Rocky's "F**kin Problems," featuring Drake, 2 Chainz and Lamar, hit No. 8 in 2013; Taylor Swift's Lamar-assisted "Bad Blood" topped the June 6, 2015-dated Hot 100; and Lamar recently rose to No. 6 as a guest on Maroon 5's "Don't Wanna Know."
"Humble" introduces Lamar's new LP, which may be called simply ALBUM, expected next Friday, April 14.