After Coldplay's big debut at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 with "Ghost Stories," it seems the rock band has a good chance of holding atop the list for a second week.
"Ghost Stories" bowed with 383,000 copies sold in the week ending May 25. But how much will the album sell in its second week (ending June 1)?
It's typical for albums with large opening frames to tumble significantly in their second week. For example, the last Coldplay album, "Mylo Xyloto," was released in 2011 and sold 447,000 in its debut week. It then fell by 77 percent in week number two, selling 104,000.
If "Ghost Stories" erodes by 77 percent, it would fall to around 88,000. If it drops by 80 percent, it would sell 76,000.
Either figure would still probably be enough to secure a second week at No. 1. The biggest challengers for the top slot are two new releases that both bowed on May 27 and are heading for the top 10: Mariah Carey's "Me. I Am Mariah … The Elusive Chanteuse" and Austin Mahone's "The Secret." Industry sources forecast Carey's album to perhaps sell around 60,000 to 65,000 in the week ending June 1. Mahone might do 45,000 to 50,000.
The Billboard 200's new top 10 will be revealed on Wednesday, June 4.
Carey's last album, "Merry Christmas II You," debuted and peaked at No. 4 in 2010 from a 55,000 start -- according to Nielsen SoundScan. Her last non-holiday studio album, 2009's "Memoirs of An Imperfect Angel," debuted and peaked at No. 3 with 168,000.
"The Elusive Chanteuse" will likely grant Carey her 17th top 10 album.
As for Mahone, "The Secret" is his debut album release. Mahone's Billboard chart career began on Nov. 26, 2011, when he arrived on the Social 50 chart (a tally that measures the most popular artists across social networks). He has charted nine entries on the Pop Digital Songs chart, including the top 10 single "Mmm Yeah" (featuring Pitbull).