It's Drake vs. Drake for No. 1 on Next Week's Hot 100, As 'Nice for What' Could Dethrone 'God's Plan'
"Plan" has spent 11 weeks on top so far.
Drake could dethrone himself at No. 1 on next week's Billboard Hot 100 chart (dated April 21), as new single "Nice for What" will debut and challenge his own "God's Plan" -- which has reigned for 11 weeks -- for the top spot.
Let's look at the potential stats for both songs, released on Young Money/Cash Money/Republic Records, and how they might fare on next week's Hot 100; the chart blends weekly streaming, airplay and sales data, according to Nielsen Music.
Based on preliminary totals projecting the tracking period feeding next week's Hot 100, "Nice," released late on April 6 (the first day of the streaming and sales tracking week), should launch with over 50 million U.S. streams and over 75,000 downloads sold in the week ending April 12. It should also draw over 25 million in all-format radio airplay audience in the week ending April 15 (the last day of the airplay tracking week).
"Plan" should sport over 40 million U.S. streams, 30,000 sold and 110 million in airplay reach in the same measurement spans.
When those figures are crunched, the leads in streaming and sales for "Nice" could be enough for the song to replace "Plan" at No. 1 on the Hot 100, despite the latter's notable advantage in airplay.
If "Nice" wins the race, Drake would earn his fifth Hot 100 No. 1 and third as a lead artist.
"Nice" supplanting "Plan" would also make Drake the 13th act to replace itself at No. 1 and the first since Justin Bieber, who did so as featured on Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee's "Despacito" and DJ Khaled's "I'm the One" (also featuring Quavo, Chance the Rapper and Lil Wayne), as the former wrestled the top spot from the latter on May 27, 2017. Bieber is also the last act to have replaced himself at No. 1 as a lead artist, when his "Love Yourself" took over for "Sorry" on the Hot 100 dated Feb. 13, 2016.
With "Plan" having debuted at No. 1 on the Hot 100 and "Nice" perhaps in line to do the same, Drake could become the first artist to replace himself at No. 1 with both songs having launched at the apex.
Meanwhile, "Nice" would become the 30th single to start atop the Hot 100 and Drake would become only the fourth artist with multiple No. 1 debuts, following Mariah Carey, the leader with three, and Bieber and Britney Spears, each with two.
Regardless of whether or not it arrives at No. 1, "Nice" should easily mark Drake's 25th Hot 100 top 10, tying him with Elvis Presley for the fourth-most top 10s among male soloists in the chart's history.
The official video for "Nice" features stars including Tiffany Haddish, Rashida Jones and Olivia Wilde and also arrived April 6. The track samples Lauryn Hill's "Ex-Factor," which hit No. 7 on the Hot R&B/Hip-Hop Songs chart and No. 21 on the Hot 100 in 1999.
Highlights of next week's Hot 100 will post on Billboard.com Monday (April 16), with all charts posting the following day (April 17).