Chart Beat

Russ, Kesha and Louis Tomlinson on Course For Top 10 Debuts on Billboard 200 Albums Chart

Jonathan Mannion


After a week where nothing debuted in the top 10 of the Billboard 200 albums chart, it appears four titles could bow in the region on next week’s tally. On the Feb. 15-dated chart, where Lil Wayne’s Funeral is expected to open at No. 1, he may be joined by arrivals in the top 10 from RussShake the Snow Globe, Kesha’s High Road and Louis Tomlinson’s Walls.

The Billboard 200 chart ranks the most popular albums of the week based on multi-metric consumption, which includes traditional album sales, track equivalent albums (TEA) and streaming equivalent albums (SEA). The top 10 of the Feb. 15-dated Billboard 200 chart is scheduled to be revealed on Billboard’s websites on Sunday, Feb. 9.

Industry forecasters estimate Funeral could start with between 115,000 and 130,000 equivalent album units earned in the week ending Feb. 6, with over 30,000 of that sum in album sales.

Streaming activity will likely comprise the majority of Funeral’s overall starting unit sum, with perhaps 70% of its activity driven by streams. Funeral will also benefit from album sales generated by a concert ticket/album sale redemption offer, as well as merchandise/album bundles sold through Lil Wayne’s official website.

If Funeral opens at No. 1, it will mark Lil Wayne’s fifth chart-topper on the Billboard 200.

Meanwhile, Roddy Ricch’s current No. 1, Please Excuse Me for Being Antisocial, looks like it will drop down to No. 2 with around 80,000 to 90,000 units.

Hip-hop may hold down the entire top three, as Russ’ Shake the Snow Globe could bow at No. 3 with perhaps 65,000 to 75,000 units. Perhaps 40,000 or more of that total will be in album sales, pumped by a concert ticket/album sale redemption offer, as well as merchandise/album bundles. If Shake starts as expected, it will notch Russ his third consecutive top 10 effort, and his highest charting album yet, surpassing his No. 4 peak with 2018’s Zoo.

Kesha’s new album High Road could drive straight in to the top 10, as it may bow with between 40,000 to 45,000 equivalent album units earned. Also eyeing a top 10 debut is Louis Tomlinson’s debut album, Walls, which could start with perhaps 35,000 to 43,000 units. Both High Road and Walls are benefitting from concert ticket/album sale redemption offers, in addition to merchandise/album bundles.

Likely outside the new top 10, the next biggest debuts will perhaps come from Yo Gotti’s Untrapped (27,000 to 33,000 units), Key Glock’s Yellow Tape (26,000 to 30,000) and Meghan Trainor’s Treat Myself (17,000 to 21,000).