Global Biz Down 1% In 2004

While the recorded music business dipped slightly in 2004, new research predicts that demand for music DVD will pace the industry for years to come.

While the recorded music business dipped slightly in 2004, new research predicts that demand for music DVD will pace the industry for years to come.

In its new publication "Global Music Forecasts," British-based research firm Informa estimates that the recorded music market in 2004 registered a value of $32.1 billion, down 1% year-on-year. During that period, audio product fell in value by 2.9% to $29.4 billion and that sum is expected to remain unchanged in 2005.

However, the report suggests that the overall market will soon show gains thanks to the nascent music DVD sector and digital download sales. In 2004, music video sales rose by an estimated 26.3% to $2.7 billion. Led by the music DVD format, that sector is expected to account for $3.1 billion in sales for 2005.

"Although the digital sector has grabbed all the headlines, overall growth in the next few years is likely to come from music video," explains Informa senior music analyst Simon Dyson, who is the author of the report.

The recorded music market is tipped to exceed $38.7 billion in 2010. Until then, the market for audio product is forecast to rise at a "modest" annual rate to reach $33 billion, driven largely by sales of digital downloads and CD albums. Music video is expected to grow by an average annual rate of 9.4% to surpass $4.9 billion in 2010.

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