Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper's "Shallow" is aiming to surge to No. 1 for the first time on next week's Billboard Hot 100 chart (dated March 9) and unseat Ariana Grande's "7 Rings," which has ruled in its first five weeks on the survey.
"Shallow," from the box office hit A Star Is Born, starring Gaga and Cooper (who also directed the film), should surge in streams and sales in the tracking week ending Feb. 28 after the pair performed the ballad and it won for best original song at the 91st Academy Awards Feb. 24.
The Hot 100 blends weekly streaming, airplay and sales data, according to Nielsen Music.
Projecting building-week data, "Shallow," released on Interscope Records, should vault from 9.6 million U.S. streams (in the week ending Feb. 21) to over 25 million and from 35,000 downloads sold to over 100,000, easily making it the top-selling song of the week. Aiding the song's projected streaming sum is the video of Gaga and Cooper's performance of it at the Oscars uploaded to her official YouTube channel.
"Shallow" will also likely increase in radio airplay after logging 26.6 million audience impressions in the tracking week ending Feb. 24.
"7 Rings," on Republic Records, could sport over 40 million streams (after drawing 44.5 million a week earlier), 20,000 in sales (down from 27,000) and 80 million in radio reach (up from 71.3 million).
Thus, while "7 Rings" will outperform "Shallow" in streaming and airplay, the latter's leaps in all three metrics, especially streaming and sales, could be enough for it to overtake the Hot 100's incumbent No. 1.
"Shallow" is found at No. 21 on the latest, March 2-dated Hot 100, in its 21st week on the list -- and has hit a No. 5 high so far, in its second frame (Oct. 20, 2018). Gaga is seeking her fourth Hot 100 No. 1, after "Just Dance," featuring Colby O'Donis (for three weeks in January 2009), "Poker Face" (two, April 2009) and "Born This Way" (six, February-April 2011). Cooper is aiming for his first Hot 100 leader.
Highlights of next week's Hot 100 are scheduled to post on Billboard.com Monday (March 4), with all charts posting the following day.