Arcade Fire is heading for its second No. 1 album on the Billboard 200 chart. Industry sources suggest the band's new album, "Reflektor," may sell around 135,000 copies by the end of the tracking week on Sunday, Nov. 3.
That sum should be enough to surpass whatever the current No. 1 title, Katy Perry's "Prism," will sell in its second week. "Prism" debuted at No. 1 this past week, selling 286,000 according to Nielsen SoundScan.
The new Billboard 200 chart's top 10 will be revealed on the morning of Wednesday, Nov. 6.
It's unlikely that "Prism" will sell enough to block Arcade Fire, as most No. 1-debuting albums drop by a significant percentage. Last week's No. 1 debut, Pearl Jam's "Lightning Bolt," fell by 72% this week, while in the previous week, Miley Cyrus' No. 1-debuting "Bangerz" dropped by 73% in its second week. If "Prism" declines by at least 70%, it would sell around 85,000.
Arcade Fire's "Reflektor" should mark the second No. 1 for the group, following its 2010 album "The Suburbs." It arrived atop the list with 156,000 sold. It spent 52 weeks on the chart and has sold 776,000 according to SoundScan.
The band's new album is also their first with major distribution, after a career as an independently-distributed act. Universal Music Group is distributing the new album, while its previous sets went through Alternative Distribution Alliance (ADA). Another change in the world of Arcade Fire is that they have a new partner in Capitol Records, which is promoting the album to radio. (Arcade Fire is still with its longtime label Merge Records.)
Aside from Arcade Fire, there are upwards of five more albums eyeing a possible top 10 start on the Billboard 200 next week. They include Kelly Clarkson's "Wrapped In Red" (maybe 60,000), and, of "Duck Dynasty" fame, the Robertsons' "Duck the Halls" (50,000). The latter album features the cast of the A&E TV show (the Robertson family) singing familiar holiday favorites, with a few new original tunes in the mix. The album also boasts guest turns from country stars like George Strait, Luke Bryan and Alison Krauss.
Staying with the country theme, Toby Keith's "Drinks After Work" may launch with 35,000 or so. Meanwhile, fellow country singer Thomas Rhett could see his debut full-length set "It Goes Like This" bow with perhaps 35,000 as well.