Could Taylor Swift's new single "Shake It Off" become her second No. 1 hit on the Billboard Hot 100? The track is already off to a sizzling start and seems headed for the top of the chart.
The song could debut on the Hot 100 as early as Wednesday (Aug. 20) based on just its initial airplay. The tune could then rocket up the chart next week, once its sales and streams have kicked in. "Shake It Off" is the first single from Swift's fifth studio album, 1989, which will be released on Oct. 27.
"Shake It Off" premiered during Swift's Yahoo! live stream shortly after 2 p.m. PT on Monday (Aug. 18). The stream was also carried on more than 140 Clear Channel-owned radio stations. A few minutes after the song's premiere, it was serviced to mainstream top 40 radio stations and adult top 40 stations by her label, Big Machine Records. It also quickly flew to No. 1 on the real-time Billboard + Twitter Trending 140 chart.
Produced by Max Martin and Shellback (who also teamed for Swift's "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together," the lead single from her last album), the song is sure to reach great heights on the Billboard Hot 100.
The Billboard Hot 100, which ranks the week's most popular songs in the United States based on sales, airplay and streaming data, is compiled each Wednesday. As noted earlier, "Shake It Off" could debut this Wednesday from airplay data, as the Hot 100's tracking week for airplay runs from Wednesday through Tuesday. (Sales and streaming information for the chart is collected on a Sunday through Monday basis.)
"We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together" had a similar chart trajectory: It debuted at No. 72 on the Hot 100 from its first few days of airplay, and then jumped to No. 1 the next week after it racked up an incredible sales debut. The song sold 623,000 downloads in its first week, according to Nielsen SoundScan. It remains the largest sales week ever for a song by a woman, and the second biggest ever (behind only Flo Rida's first week with "Right Round," 636,000).
Considering that the song was just released to digital retailers on Monday, it's still a bit early to forecast how many downloads it might sell in its first week. (That said, multiple industry sources are guessing that "Shake It Off" could debut with 500,000.) A proper first-week forecast will be possible after the song has been on sale for a full day, so chart-watchers and analysts can see how it is trending.
In total, Swift has logged 14 top 10 singles on the Hot 100, including one No. 1: "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together."