John Mayer is on course for a No. 2 debut on the Billboard 200 next week with his sixth studio album, "Paradise Valley." Industry sources suggest the set could sell around 150,000 copies by the end of the tracking week on Aug. 25.
The new Billboard 200 chart's top 10 will be revealed on the morning of Aug. 28.
Mayer will likely be blocked from the top slot by reigning chart champ Luke Bryan's "Crash My Party." The album debuted at No. 1 this week with 528,000 copies sold, according to Nielsen SoundScan.
Even if "Crash My Party" erodes by 70% in its second week, it would still sell more than what Mayer is projected to move. (The last three No. 1-debuting albums all fell by between 63% and 68% in their second week. Bryan's last album, the No. 1-starting "Spring Break… Here to Party," dropped by 59% in its second frame.)
All of Mayer's five previous studio sets have reached the top 10, and the last two have bowed at No. 1. His last effort, 2012's "Born and Raised," opened with 219,000 just over a year ago. Previous to that, "Battle Studies" in 2009 launched with 286,000.
Mayer has additionally clocked a top 10 with the live album "Where the Light Is: John Mayer Live in Los Angeles," which reached No. 5 in 2008.
Other albums eyeing big bows on next week's chart include TGT (the superstar trio of Tyrese, Ginuwine and Tank) with its debut set "3 Kings" (65,000 or so) and Jimmy Buffett's "Songs From St. Somewhere" (55,000).