Business Matters: If Big Radio Had Pandora's Royalty Rate, It Would Owe Billions
Business Matters: If Big Radio Had Pandora's Royalty Rate, It Would Owe Billions

It may be hard to believe, but Apple news has not really had much of an impact on Pandora's share price. People may remember the impact from two reports about Apple's plans to launch an Internet radio service. But they could be less likely to remember the times Pandora's stock has crept upward when Apple has not unveiled an Internet radio service at its last two product events.

Apple Radio Service Rumors Crush Pandora Stock

When combined, the single-day price changes from these five Apple-related events (Sept. 12 is an intra-day price change attributed to Apple) amount to just a 5.9% decline in Pandora's share price when weighted for daily trading volume. The impact of each event was adjusted to remove the effect of that particular day's market (using the technology heavy NASDAQ composite).

1. Sept. 7: Wall Street Journal reports Apple is planning to launch an Internet radio service. Pandora shares fall 16.7%. Trading volume is 24 million.
2. Sept. 12: No Internet radio service is introduced at the iPhone 5 event. Pandora shares increase 10% as a result. Trading volume is 11.2 million.
3. Sept. 13: Pandora's share price continues to rise 7.4% the day after the iPhone 5 event. Trading volume is 7 million.
4. Oct. 23: No Internet radio service is introduced at the iPad Mini event. Pandora shares rise 7.5%. Trading volume is 7.6 million.
5. Oct. 25: Bloomberg reports Apple will launch its Internet radio service in the first quarter of 2013. Pandora shares fall 12.6%
6. The weighted average of these five changes in share price, which are attributable to Apple, is 5.8%.

Of course, Apple could have impacted Pandora at other times that are not measured by these five obvious price swings. But it's clear that in the five instances Pandora investors have assimilated information about Apple, the net effect has not been very damaging.