Billboard Hot 100 Fest

One Direction vs. Adele: Who'll Be No. 1 on Billboard 200?

8:14PM: Harry Styles high fives fans during round 2 of autographs.
Diana Levine

The U.K. pop group One Direction is aiming for a No. 1 debut on the Billboard 200 album chart next week with its first album, "Up All Night." However, Adele's "21" may block the quintet from the top with a return to No. 1.


Candid Photos of Harry & Co.

Presently, industry sources suggest "Up All Night" may sell around 160,000 to 170,000 copies by the end of the tracking week on Sunday, March 18. However, Adele's "21" could sell right around the same amount.

How the albums perform over the weekend will play a large part in their placing on the chart next week. Even if One Direction settles for a No. 2 bow, it will make history as the highest debut from U.K. group's first album.

The new Billboard 200 chart's top 10 will be revealed on the morning of Wednesday, March 21.

Theoretically, both albums could profit from the weekend and family shopping at big box stores like Target and Walmart.

Adele -- believe it or not -- is still being discovered by thousands of people each week. And her Grammy performance is still fresh in the average consumer's mind.

On the other hand, when families are out doing their weekly shopping on Saturday and Sunday, you can picture young kids bugging their parents to buy the One Direction album as they pass by a display at Target.

One Direction, 'Up All Night': Track-By-Track Review

On Nielsen SoundScan's Building chart (below), One Direction is at No. 1 while Adele is in the runner-up slot. The Building tally is a precursor to the final Billboard 200 ranking -- reflecting the first four days (Monday through Thursday) of SoundScan's tracking week as reported by six major merchants.

As for the rest of the top 10 on the Building chart, Bruce Springsteen's current Billboard 200 No. 1, "Wrecking Ball," is No. 3 while the "Now 41" compilation is at No. 4. Passion Worship's new "White Flag" set is No. 5 while Gotye's "Making Mirrors" and Fun.'s "Some Nights" are Nos. 6 and 7, respectively. The "Project X" soundtrack is No. 8, Drake's "Take Care" is No. 9 and Rihanna's "Talk That Talk" is at No. 10.

Nielsen SoundScan Building Chart
Rank LW
BB 200
Artist Title
1 NEW One Direction "Up All Night"
2 2 Adele "21"
3 1 Bruce Springsteen "Wrecking Ball"
4 3 Various Artists "Now 41"
5 NEW Passion Worship "White Flag"
6 16 Gotye "Making Mirrors"
7 13 fun. "Some Nights"
8 12 Soundtrack "Project X"
9 7 Drake "Take Care"
10 17 Rihanna "Talk That Talk"
The Building Chart reflects the first four days (Monday through Thursday) of SoundScan's tracking week (which ends Sunday) as reported by six major merchants: iTunes, Trans World Entertainment, Best Buy, Starbucks, Target and Anderson Merchandisers. Billboard estimates that they make up about 85% of all U.S. album sales.