21 Under 21: Scotty McCreery (2011)
Scotty soaks in the moment after performing "Are You Gonna Kiss Me or Not"

Lauren Alaina picked up some momentum during the final performance night on Tuesday, but the glitter won't be raining down on her during tonight's finale. Here are five reasons why Scotty McCreery is a lock to win:

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1. He fits the profile.

Before America heard one note leave young Scotty McCreery's mouth at his Milwaukee audition, viewers saw that he was a good-looking, cross-wearing country boy with a Carolina accent and a love for the great American pastime of baseball. Throw in Scotty's naturally chiseled voice and aw-shucks charm -- not to mention "Idol's" recent streak of victorious male contestants who appeal to middle America -- and season 10 of "American Idol" was always Scotty's to lose.

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2. He played the game best.

Scotty's throwback pipes have been the most consistent since day 1 -- consistently boring, some would argue, but by selecting songs that were in his wheelhouse but allowed him to subtly improve over time, Scotty steadily dominated the field while growing just a tad as well. He never wavered in front of pop-leaning mentors either, whether it was Jimmy Iovine or Lady Gaga; when the latter coached the Top 4, Scotty played nice with the pop star but made sure his audience knew his style wasn't malleable. The Gaga incident was just one episode, but it was a big one, and demonstrated how savvy Scotty was this season.

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3. He's never been in the Bottom 3.

Although the number of votes each contestant receives is never revealed, Scotty has been as clear of a front-runner in the competition as possible: he never sniffed the Bottom 3 during season 10, while Lauren received the second-fewest votes three weeks ago, only to be saved by Jacob Lusk's lack of support. "Idol" hasn't seen a competitor as rock-solid with the voters as Scotty in the last five seasons. Why think that they won't show up now?

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4. His song choices are irrelevant.

Sure, his "Swingin'" was playful, and "I Cross My Heart" tugged at the heartstrings, but do you remember the standout Scotty McCreery performance of season 10? Me neither. That's because it didn't matter if Scotty sang Garth Brooks or the phone book -- he was an unstoppable force that synthesized every one of his songs into a display for that syrupy voice. Admit it: when Scotty was on stage, you were thinking, "I can't believe that deep voice is coming out of that teenager's mouth!," not "Wow, what a great song choice!"

5. He's already a hit.

At 1.2 million views, the YouTube clip of Scotty's Milwaukee audition has nearly double the amount of hits as Lauren's Nashville tryout. The judges have sung the praises of Scotty all season, while Lauren received some harsh words for her take on "Unchained Melody." Every Las Vegas book has Scotty as the favorite for a reason -- the kid's tangibly more popular than his competitor. If you bet against Scotty McCreery on Wednesday night, do so at your own peril.

Don't agree? Read my colleague's opposite take: 5 Reasons Lauren Alaina Will Win 'American Idol.' And tell us: