10/6 Update: After Adele's "Skyfall" was released Thursday evening (Oct. 4), the song is already trending around the No. 30 rank on the building all-format Nielsen BDS-based Radio Songs chart (which runs from Wednesday through Tuesday each week). So far, it's garnered 21 million audience impressions. As for genre airplay charts (which run from Monday to Sunday), "Skyfall" is already No. 16 on the building Adult Contemporary chart (with slightly more than 200 plays so far), No. 33 on Adult Pop Songs with (morethan 300) and No. 37 on Pop Songs (about 700).
"Skyfall" is selling big digitally, as it's been the No. 1 song in the iTunes Store since shortly after its release on Thursday night. Label sources suggest it sold twice as many downloads on Friday (across all retailers) as it did the day previous. That said, "Skyfall" may move between 200,000 and 250,000 downloads by the end of the SoundScan sales tracking week on Sunday, Oct. 7. That's a mighty number for being on sale less than four full days. As we said on Friday, however, predicting "Skyfall's" sales is difficult, as traditional sales projection models can't necessarily be used for mid-week releases.
At the rate "Skyfall" is selling, it should debut in the top four on the Digital Songs chart this coming Wednesday (10), possibly with One Direction's "Live While We're Young," Taylor Swift's "Red" and PSY's "Gangnam Style" likely at Nos. 1-3, respectively.
Adele's James Bond theme song, "Skyfall," is headed for a notable debut on the Billboard Hot 100, based on a strong launch on radio and early sales projections. The song arrives a few weeks before the series' latest film, starring Daniel Craig, premieres in theaters.
For 24 hours beginning at 6 a.m. local time today (Oct. 5), "Skyfall" is airing at the top of each hour on approximately 180 Clear Channel Media and Entertainment pop, adult pop and adult contemporary stations (roughly 100 of which report to the Billboard Hot 100). It's the latest single supported by the chain with hourly plays, following similar launches for Rihanna's "Diamonds," Taylor Swift's "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together," and earlier songs by Prince, Jason Aldean, Madonna and others.
After the song was released yesterday evening, "Skyfall" is already trending around the No. 50 rank on the building all-format Nielsen BDS-based Radio Songs chart (which runs from Wednesday through Tuesday each week). In less than 24 hours, it's garnered 10 million audience impressions. As for genre airplay charts (which run from Monday to Sunday), "Skyfall" is already No. 21 on the building Adult Contemporary chart (with slightly more than 100 plays so far), No. 40 on Adult Pop Songs with (about 200) and just below No. 40 on Pop Songs (about 400).
As for sales, it's difficult, at the present, to forecast how well Adele's "Skyfall" will sell by the end of the tracking week on Sunday (Oct. 7). The song went on sale early yesterday evening (after being available as a pre-order since Monday), so we don't yet know what it will sell on its first full day of availability (today).
That said, the song's sales launch last night is tracking well and could point to a start in the range of 200,000 by Sunday night. Of course, that number could fluctuate wildly depending on how the song -- which is currently ranked at No. 1 in the iTunes Store -- will sell over the weekend. 200,000 could end up being a conservative figure, but we'll know more definitively tomorrow, once we have knowledge about the song's Friday sales. We'll also then be able to better gauge where "Skyfall" could debut on the Hot 100. Highlights of the finalized chart will be released Wednesday (Oct. 10) on Billboard's websites.