Can Justin Timberlake Dethrone Drake Atop the Hot 100?

Courtesy Photo
Justin Timberlake, "CAN'T STOP THE FEELING!" 

JT's new "Can't Stop the Feeling!" could debut at No. 1, replacing Drake's "One Dance."

A heated battle for the Billboard Hot 100 's summit appears set for Monday (May 16), as Justin Timberlake's new single, "Can't Stop the Feeling!," should pose a serious challenge to current leader "One Dance" by Drake (featuring WizKid and Kyla).

Based on projected sales provided by industry sources, and streaming and airplay data, collected by Nielsen Music so far in the tracking period, "Feeling," released a week ago (May 6), could blast onto the Hot 100 (dated May 28) at No. 1. Such an arrival would unseat "Dance" after the latter song became Drake's first Hot 100 No. 1 as a lead act on the May 21 chart.

"Feeling," written and produced by Timberlake, Max Martin and Shellback and from the forthcoming Trolls soundtrack, could start with a monstrous 330,000 sold or more, while "Dance" could finish the tracking week with 125,000 or more scanned. "Dance," however, holds a wide lead in streaming: more than 30 million vs. more than 10 million for Timberlake so far. Drake's song also leads, although less so, in radio airplay audience over Timberlake's (roughly 60 vs. 50 million).

Overall, these preliminary figures suggest a tight race for the Hot 100's summit (with the chart encompassing those three data metrics). The winner, and the entire Hot 100's top 10, will be revealed Monday on Billboard.com.