Taylor Swift Aiming For No. 1 On Hot 100 With 'Shake It Off'
The song looks likely to soar in as her second Hot 100 leader next week.
Expect a major "shake"-up atop the Billboard Hot 100 chart next week, as Taylor Swift appears headed for a No. 1 debut with her new single, "Shake It Off."
Based on expected massive first-week sales, airplay and streaming, the song looks likely to open atop the ranking. Check out Billboard.com on Wednesday (Aug. 28) when highlights of the chart will post. (The full Hot 100 will update online the following day.)
Swift released the celebratory, anti-negativity anthem on Monday (Aug. 18, just after 2 p.m. PT/5 p.m. ET), when she hosted a Yahoo! live stream. "Shake" introduces 1989, Swift's fifth studio album and first since Red two years ago. The set arrives Oct. 27 on Big Machine Records.
Here's a look at how her new hit is shaping up in the Hot 100's three measurement metrics.
According to industry projections, "Shake" could start with more than 475,000 downloads sold in the U.S. in its first week (ending Sunday, Aug. 24). Such a sum would mark the biggest arrival this year, besting Ariana Grande's "Problem," which bowed with 438,000 sold and debuted at No. 1 on the May 17 Digital Songs chart. (It entered the Hot 100 at No. 3 and went on to peak at No. 2 for five weeks.)
The last song to start north of 475,000 sold: Katy Perry's "Roar," which debuted atop the Aug. 31, 2013, Digital Songs tally with 557,000. It vaulted 85-2 on the Hot 100 that week ahead of its two-week stay at No. 1.
In addition to launching as the top-selling song in the country, "Shake" should begin as the most-streamed in its first week, too. According to preliminary data from Nielsen BDS, "Shake" easily drew the most streams in the U.S. on Aug. 18-19 on Vevo on YouTube: 6.3 million. Meghan Trainor's "All About That Bass" ranks second with 2.7 million streams in that two-day span.
"Bass" currently leads Billboard's Streaming Songs chart with 8.1 million U.S. streams overall, with 4.4 million via Vevo on YouTube, in the week ending Aug. 17.
While it boasts a strong early lead in Vevo on YouTube streams, "Shake" is not available on on-demand audio services.
"Shake" is also bound for a monster frame of radio airplay in its first full week of availability. On BDS' building Radio Songs chart, the song ranks at No. 10 with 22 million in all-format audience since Wednesday.
(Because the Radio Songs chart, which powers the airplay component of the Hot 100, follows a Wednesday-Tuesday tracking week, while sales and streaming cover a Monday-Tuesday period, "Shake" debuted on this week's Radio Songs chart at No. 45 with 29 million impressions in its first two days. It was aided by hourly plays on participating Clear Channel and Media Entertainment-owned pop and adult pop radio stations in its first day and a half.)
"Shake" currently ranks at No. 9 on both the building Pop Songs and Adult Pop Songs charts (which run Monday-Sunday). It's on track to make a record-setting start on each list, as no song has ever debuted in the top 10 since the tallies launched in 1992 and 1996, respectively.
In all, Swift seems a safe bet to storm in at No. 1 on the Hot 100 next week.
Should it rocket to the top, "Shake" would become her second No. 1, following "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together." The first single from Red vaulted 72-1 on the Sept. 1, 2012, Hot 100 following its first week of availability. It led for three weeks total.
Additional reporting by Keith Caulfield