On next week's Billboard 200 chart, Pearl Jam should secure its fifth No. 1 album, while rock legend Paul McCartney is heading for the top five with his new effort, "New." Also aiming for the top five: Avett Brothers, with its latest release, "Magpie and the Dandelion."
Next week's top 10 will be revealed on Wednesday, Oct. 23. The full chart will refresh the following day on Billboard.com and Billboard.biz.
Industry sources forecast Pearl Jam's album, "Lightning Bolt," to sell around 170,000 to 180,000 by the end of the tracking week on Sunday, Oct. 20. That's a bit less than the sum that greeted its last studio record, 2009's "Backspacer." It entered at No. 1 with 189,000.
Pearl Jam also previously topped the Billboard 200 with "No Code" (1996), "Vitalogy" (1994) and "Vs." (1993). They've also notched four No. 2-peaking albums with "Ten" (1992), "Yield" (1998), "Binaural" (2000) and "Pearl Jam" (2006).
McCartney, meanwhile, should easily bow in the top 10 -- and likely top five -- with "New." It will mark his 19th top 10 set, counting his work with Wings (but not his Beatles' releases). The album might move around 75,000.
Miley Cyrus' "Bangerz," which is currently No. 1 on this week's Billboard 200, will probably fall to No. 2 or No. 3 next week, with around 75,000 or so.
The third-highest debut next week will come from Avett Brothers, as its new "Magpie and the Dandelion" should sell around 65,000 for a top five start. That would mark the second-highest sales week for the act, following "The Carpenter"'s bow of 98,000 in 2012.
"Magpie" could also earn the act its highest-charting album, if it surpasses the No. 4 peak of "The Carpenter."
Other albums heading for top 10 starts: Scotty McCreery's "See You Tonight" (45,000) and the Head and the Heart's "Let's Be Still" (40,000). For the latter, it would mark their best sales week and highest charting album. Their self-titled set topped out at No. 109 in early 2012.
Also on tap for a possible top 10 debut: country great Willie Nelson, with his new collaborations album, "To All the Girls." It may sell around 35,000 or so.
"To All the Girls" features new duets with the likes of Miranda Lambert, Carrie Underwood, Loretta Lynn and Dolly Parton. It is supported by a successful QVC promotional campaign, which is driving a good-sized number of the album's first-week sales. At the present, "To All the Girls" could earn Nelson his highest charting album since 1982, when "Always On My Mind" spent four weeks at No. 2.
On SoundScan's Building chart (below), Pearl Jam and Cyrus are Nos. 1 and 2, respectively. The Building tally is a precursor to the final Billboard 200 ranking -- reflecting the first four days (Monday through Thursday) of SoundScan's tracking week as reported by six major merchants.
As for the rest of the top 10: McCartney and Avett Brothers are at No. 3 and No. 4, while Drake's "Nothing Was the Same" is No. 5. McCreery's "See You Tonight" is at No. 6, followed by the Head and the Heart at No. 7. Lorde's "Pure Heroine" is No. 8, with Justin Timberlake's "The 20/20 Experience (2 of 2)" at No. 9. Gavin DeGraw's new "Make a Move" closes the top 10 at No. 10.
|Nielsen SoundScan Building Chart|
|1||NEW||Pearl Jam||"Lightning Bolt"|
|4||NEW||Avett Brothers||"Magpie and the Dandelion"|
|5||3||Drake||"Nothing Was the Same"|
|6||NEW||Scott McCreery||"See You Tonight"|
|7||NEW||The Head and the Heart||"Let's Be Still"|
|9||5||Justin Timberlake||"The 20/20 Experience (2 of 2)"|
|10||NEW||Gavin DeGraw||"Make a Move"|
|The Building Chart reflects the first four days (Monday through Thursday) of SoundScan's tracking week (which ends Sunday) as reported by six major merchants: iTunes, Trans World Entertainment, Best Buy, Starbucks, Target and Anderson Merchandisers. Billboard estimates that they make up about 85% of all U.S. album sales.|